Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,255,119$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175,960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175,960.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119,719$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,413.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115,413.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,517,940$ on 2020-06-20

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $102,762$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,664.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(101,664.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,466$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(969 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,330.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,330.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,470$ on 2020-06-20

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $175,202$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267,063.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 84.6)}}\) (asimptote \(267,063.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,781$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(549 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,671.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 75.9)}}\) (asimptote \(31,671.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,567$ on 2020-06-20

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,222$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,001.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(83,001.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $493$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(44.9 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{516.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(516.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,370$ on 2020-06-20

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,778$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,036.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 73.5)}}\) (asimptote \(31,036.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $655$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(606.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,166$ on 2020-06-20

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,306$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,573.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 111.9)}}\) (asimptote \(40,573.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $358$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(23.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{558.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 76.0)}}\) (asimptote \(558.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,673$ on 2020-06-20

Guatemala

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,755$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(99.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,771.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(22,771.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $514$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{709.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 70.7)}}\) (asimptote \(709.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,683$ on 2020-06-20

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,475$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,620.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 71.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,620.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $93$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.88 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 86.5)}}\) (asimptote \(196.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,933$ on 2020-06-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Cuba recovered 82%
Canada recovered 18%

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,309$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(563 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,151.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,151.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(26.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(83.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $153$ on 2020-06-20