Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,255,119$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175,960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175,960.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $119,719$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,413.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115,413.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,517,940$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $102,762$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,664.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(101,664.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,466$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(969 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,330.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,330.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,470$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $175,202$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267,063.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 84.6)}}\) (asimptote \(267,063.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,781$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(549 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,671.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 75.9)}}\) (asimptote \(31,671.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,567$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,222$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,001.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(83,001.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $493$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(44.9 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{516.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(516.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,370$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,778$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,036.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 73.5)}}\) (asimptote \(31,036.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $655$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(606.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,166$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,306$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,573.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 111.9)}}\) (asimptote \(40,573.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $358$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(23.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{558.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 76.0)}}\) (asimptote \(558.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,673$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,755$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(99.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,771.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(22,771.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $514$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{709.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 70.7)}}\) (asimptote \(709.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,683$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,475$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,620.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 71.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,620.9\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $93$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.88 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 86.5)}}\) (asimptote \(196.9\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,933$ on 2020-06-20
